Ivory Coast Cocoa Production Faces 25% Decline as El Niño Threatens Global Supply
Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is facing a potentially significant agricultural shock, with an exceptionally strong El Niño.
By Commodity Markets·
An exceptionally strong El Nino weather event could cut Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 season cocoa production by 21% to 25%, according to a report from the country’s national weather agency.
Forecasters have warned that the El Nino could become one of the strongest on record if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue.
The world’s top cocoa producer decided in June to temporarily halt sales of export contracts for its 2026/27 main crop, after selling about 1.15 million tons, while it waited for a clearer harvest estimate.
The West African country harvested over 2 million metric tons last season.
The African Development Bank noted that El Nino was likely to cut the economic output of heavily affected African countries by 1% to 2% on average, a combined hit of $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent.
The potential 25% decline in Ivory Coast's cocoa production is a warning about the intersection of climate risk, commodity markets and African economic vulnerability.
The central question is no longer simply how much cocoa Ivory Coast can produce. It is whether Africa's agricultural economies are sufficiently prepared to withstand a changing climate.